I'm no political blogger, but I think Obama is going to win the presidency. Know why? Because it's good casting.
Okay, that sounds naiive. But think about it - if you were auditioning for the role of the American President, who would be the most compelling in the role? This exercise isn't about policy, politics, experience, or who is "best" for the job. But sheerly in terms of who you would cast in the role of Great American President, admit it - it's Obama. Edwards is too pretty, too soft, not grounded and solid enough. Clinton isn't quite right - she's powerful, but doesn't inspire the right kind of confidence. You might want to love her, but it's not easy or natural. The republicans all look like washed up jerks, not inspiring leaders. If the presidency was a casting project, Obama would get the first offer.
The thing is, policy, issues, experience, of course they matter. But I think that Americans look at politics through the prism of the entertainment industry, and American Idol is where we live now. And as optimistic as I'd like to be about the American public, I think the judgement of who to vote for is a lot more about that first snap judgement (the casting decision) than we'd like to believe. Do I trust this person? Do they seem ready to lead? I'm betting these questions have waaay more weight in the rest of the country than we oh-so-informed New Yorkers want to believe.
Not to mention, the guy's got Oprah on his side, and that really never fails.